The Great Bear

First, you say you will and then you won’t, then you say you do but you don’t…

What is up with you, Vlad? You haven’t been this indecisive since you thought about burning down East Berlin in the wake of the wall falling.

According to President Joe Biden, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is imminent. President Putin doesn’t exactly deny it but suggests maybe it’s just a training exercise. Meanwhile, various European leaders have trotted dutifully to Moscow for an audience in an effort to calm the waters. Putin hasn’t had this much attention since he invaded Crimea, which may be the point of this whole exercise.

Russia is not your dad’s Soviet Union. The collapse of communism was inevitable. Authoritarian states always contain the seeds of their own destruction, especially when the authority is vested in one man. Well-established democracies, on the other hand, take a concerted effort to bring down. Unfortunately, there are plenty, including those who live in and benefit from democracy, more than willing to lend a hand. Which brings us back to Putin.

French President Macron was the first to drop by for a chat. France, of course, is always interested in playing an independent role even in a more or less united Europe. They remain out of NATO and are active in their former colonies, as an advisor or military ally of last resort, and they have their own supply of nuclear weapons, so that must count for something.

There may be more at play: Macron is likely to run for re-election and, by all accounts, is likely to win. However, there are a lot of wild cards in the race and anything can happen between now and the election days (they have 2, the first to pick the top two contenders then another to decide the matter). Many of the other candidates, on both the far right and far left are openly admiring of Putin’s approach; at least one is being investigated for taking Russian money. If nothing else, Macron may be interested in seeing what Putin has that he doesn’t.

The political dance gets even more complicated when you add in the role of China to the world stage. Despite the recent “glum” Olympics and push back on the great belt and road initiative for trade, China certainly counts as the second most powerful country in the world economically and politically and is rapidly overtaking Russia as a military force as well. Putin made a quick visit to President Xi Jinping recently to affirm the close relationship between the two powers. This is an interesting reversal when you consider the last war these two countries openly fought was with each other. In those days, China was breaking away from Soviet influence and one has to wonder if Putin is now feeling resentful of the role China is playing, especially in former Soviet client states.

Meanwhile, Putin has more immediate problems. The Russian economy has a lot going for it, mostly in the form of natural gas that Europe has become dependent on. However, other sectors are more fragile and if Europe bites the bullet and begins to find alternative energy sources, the economy might not be able to withstand extensive sanctions from the west. The fact that so much of the Russian oligarchs’ wealth, including Putin’s vast fortunes (he might well be as rich as Elon Musk), are held offshore and could well be frozen in any conflict with Europe has to weigh heavily on his mind.

All out war in Europe is unlikely but not impossible especially if Putin tries to extend his control past the chunk of eastern Ukraine now in open revolt against the central government in Kyiv. Russian overreach could quickly spread to the Baltic states or even Poland and we all know what happens when someone invades Poland.

My own cynical theory is that Putin is getting old (he’s 69) and like all aging dictators he is determined his legacy will live on. As the world faces catastrophic climate change, Putin is saying to Mother Nature: Hold my beer!

Photo by Mark Basarab on Unsplash

China the Dark

As a socialist and a student of political science and history in the 1970s and 80s, China existed on the periphery of my consciousness as more than the manufacturer of cheap goods. I knew about the cultural revolution, the one-child policy and the infamous Gang of Four (and not because of the band by the same name).

Still, it only burst on my awareness after the Tiananmen Square massacre that say hundreds or, more likely, thousands of students were killed, thousands more wounded and countless others imprisoned or re-educated. This blatant assault on democratic calls for reform and increased openness shocked me and inspired my own unofficial boycott of Chinese goods. I had previously boycotted California fruit and South African wine, voting with my wallet to bring about social change, so why not?

For a lot of things, it was easy enough to find replacements for products coming from China but Christmas lights? Who would have thought that China would corner the market for festive decorations? In the end I wound up with German-produced lights that required considerable and fussy assembly and ones from Mexico that made my tree look like a pepper plant.

My boycott ended after 1999 when Hong Kong was returned to China in an atmosphere of apparent (more apparent than real as it turned out) liberalization of the Chinese economy and politics. Good thing, too, as I had been reduced to buying running shoes made in Vietnam—whose government was hardly more concerned with human rights that that in Beijing.

Fast forward 20 some years when China has gone from a distant second in economic clout to a virtual tie with the United States for first. In part this is attributed to the establishment of limited private property rights in 2003 but Chinese manipulation of exchange rates and a number of shady deals with western corporations has as much to do with it as anything.

Still, whatever the cause, the Chinese economy run by a mix of private capital and state enterprise (the two often so interwoven as to be indistinguishable from each other) has lifted over 800 million people out of poverty and in the process created a fair share of billionaires, according to Forbes, 626 of them compared to America’s 724. Canada, by the way, has 64, putting us on a par with the USA on a per capita basis.

But what has China done with all that wealth? They have invested heavily in science and technology but also in entertainment, taking a page from the USA where culture is now one of its biggest exports. They have also spent a lot of money to erase history, making people forget or cease to care about previous repression—a process that is now continuing with the crack down in Hong Kong, arresting democracy activists and tearing down memorials to Tiananmen Square.

Then there is the Roads and Belt Initiative, a massive infrastructure project to expand trade from southeast Asia to Europe and into Africa. The Chinese government touts it as development without the burden on colonialism, yet not all the recipients are so sure. Chinese investments often take the form of commercial loans with long paybacks and the ever-growing threat of rising interest rates. For example, a high-speed rail project in Laos will cost half the annual GDP of the country. Some African states have embraced Chinese investments and loans because there are no demands for improvements to human rights. Meanwhile, a railway in Kenya transports minerals from the interior while ordinary Kenyans walk or drive on deteriorating roads.

Increasingly, many countries have begun to criticize the initiative in part because they worry about Chinese expansion but equally because China has done a remarkably poor job at both explaining and managing the process.

And then there are the Tibetans, whose country has been reduced to a client state of China, and the Uyghurs, roughly 12-13 million Chinese Muslims, many of whom have faced imprisonment in re-education camps, forced labour and involuntary sterilization, leading to accusations of human rights abuses and even genocide by rights groups and western governments.

One could go on but it might seem like piling on. Of course, Canada has its own grievances with China with the imprisonment of the “Two Michaels” in retaliation for Canada’s arrest of Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou, at the USA’s behest. While some say Canada overstepped its obligations, that has never been tested in court. Moreover, Canada’s actions were in accordance with international treaties and within the rule of law; China used the law as an instrument of international extortion.

The other place China has spent its new found wealth is for massive upgrades to its military. Recent incursions into Taiwanese airspace have raised the risk of war considerably (though whether the West would actually go to war over the island is a matter of some doubt). But it doesn’t stop there. There have been skirmishes along the Indo-China border and continued tacit support for North Korea’s adventures with nuclear weapons.

China argues it is only protecting its regional interests, just as European countries and the USA frequently did in the past. It’s a bit like saying: Johnny stole the neighbour’s bike; I should be allowed to steal one, too.

Is China the world’s biggest villain? Not at all; it is standing in a long line for that honour. But is China the beneficent world power it claims to be. I wouldn’t bet the farm on that one.

And that is way too much time spent on this blog. If you have read this far, you clearly have stamina and like my writing. Why not go and buy one of my books? They are easy to find but here’s a link or two.

China the Bright

There was lots of excitement in the speculative fiction community recently when Chengdu won the bid to host the World Science Fiction Convention in 2023. While not quite on a par with the 2022 Winter Olympics (which may or may not occur in whole or in part), it represents a significant shift for a fandom many of whom think the world stops at the borders of the USA. I heard one fan complain that they won because a lot of the votes came from China (implying without any evidence that the Chinese government conspired to tilt the vote). Never mind that Chinese fandom had been pushing the bid for years and the opposing bid from Canada only appeared at the last minute.

As one friend put it, those who wanted China voted and those who opposed the Chinese bid did not. Democracy in action—which I can tell you, from bitter experience, often provides results that you don’t like. Still, it is a fascinating idea: the Chinese beat the west at their own game. With or without state sanction, that is no small feat.

Be that as it may, my Chinaphile friends are delighted (one of them will be co-guest of honour) while those who decry China’s government (not without reason) are distraught.

The west, or at least many western governments, have long argued that an open and engaged China will inevitably be better than a closed one. After all, it was a guarded and secretive China that brought on the Cultural Revolution and other forms of brutal internal suppression leading up to the tanks in Tiananmen Square. Many argued that the integration of China into the global economy through partnerships with western corporations would lead to democratic reforms, proposing that capitalism and democracy always go hand in hand.

Most of us on the left snorted our beer through our noses at that one.

I’ve recently heard a similar argument from my science fiction friends who believe that SF is a subversive art form allowing difficult topics like rights and freedom to be broached in a way that escapes state censorship. I certainly agree that it can do that but it is hard to argue, based on some of the prominent authors of the past—I’m looking at you, Heinlein—that it will always do that. Certainly, one of the most prominent Chinese writers, Liu Cixin, winner of the Hugo for The Three Body Problem and also a GOH at Chengdu, seems to toe the party line quite forcefully, though he denies any political intent. Science Fiction, it seems, is no more subversive in an authoritarian state than capitalism.

Still, it’s not all bad. China’s accomplishments in science, technology and foreign relations over the last two decades have been remarkable and, from some points of view, Chinese science fiction has helped drive that just as, it is argued, 1950s SF inspired much of the scientific and technological advances of the USA in subsequent decades.

The Chinese are currently well ahead of everyone else in sending men (and women) back to the moon, not to mention more dramatic space ventures. Some would argue that the current revitalization of NASA has far more to do with national competition with China than it does with the space tourism and big, but as yet unfulfilled dreams, of a few billionaires. And space is only one of the frontiers of scientific endeavor that China is beginning to take the lead in (though charges of international espionage and state punishment of scientists who take a wrong ideological turn puts a damper on some of that progress). Nonetheless, I see numerous science Nobel prizes in China’s future.

China has also done a remarkable job at raising the vast majority of its population out of poverty and into the middle class, something western governments, especially the USA and Britain, have largely failed to do with their own less dramatic problems with poverty. China has also been aggressively spreading its economic philosophy (and significant growth) into other countries though its Belt and Road Initiative.

Will China finally surpass the USA to become the largest economy in the world? By some measures, it already has and by others, both the China and the USA lag behind the European Union, but the race is tight and China certainly aspires to take the gold medal—just as it aspires to win the most gold at the upcoming Olympics (it came second to the USA in the recent summer games, trailing by a single gold though by 25 medals over all). It won the bid for WorldCon, so I, for one, wouldn’t bet against them in February.

That’s more than enough for today. Tomorrow, China crosses over to the DARK SIDE.

For something a little more light-hearted, why not try my murder mystery set in Paris 1919?