The Turning Point

I’ve been watching elections – federal, provincial, municipal, other countries – since I was 14. This may be one of the oddest I’ve ever seen.

When we should be talking about pandemic recovery, indigenous reconciliation, and, more than anything, climate change, we wonder why we are having an election, worry about provincial legislation and policy (it’s a FEDERAL election, folks), and people throwing stones at politicians (turns out that was a Peoples Party of Canada riding association president – since removed).

Parties are falling all over themselves to disavow candidates and officials for misrepresenting themselves, or facing accusations of sexual harassment and racism. Let’s hope none of them get elected. And a politician who is not even running got mentioned five times in the last leaders’ debate.

Meanwhile the polls drift around, a five-point Liberal lead at the start of the campaign turned into a 5 point Conservative lead after two weeks and now both parties are essentially tied, with the Liberals holding a slight edge in the seat projections. The NDP are doing marginally better than the last two elections, but sadly, haven’t come close to Jack Layton’s result in 2011. The Greens are imploding due to party infighting and a lack of cash. Their leader now says she’s not helpful to some of their candidates. The BQ are floating below 2019 results but will still likely win 25 or so seats.

Then we have the PPC. They seem to be doing better than last time but how much better is anybody’s guess. Most pollsters have them at around 5%, probably enough to win one seat, but EKOS pegs them at 12% which is… weird, since they seem to be taking votes from everyone but the Conservatives. It seems unlikely but then this is the unlikeliest election of all.

In other words, we probably are going to wind up with a Parliament that doesn’t look a lot different than the one we had a month ago. Likely a Liberal minority or maybe a Conservative one, though O’Toole may find it difficult to find dance partners. While I’m not keen on a Conservative majority, my worst nightmare is a Conservative minority relying on the BQ to govern.

Well, that’s what we’ll get unless we’ve reached a turning point.

The oddest thing I’ve seen so far is the latest Globe and Mail editorial that, in the politest possible terms, calls Erin O’Toole a liar. The G&M is not the most progressive voice in Canadian journalism. Their actual reportage is fine but generally their opinion writers are all on the right side of center (and I don’t mean the correct side). In 2015, the editorial board called on Canadians to re-elect the Conservatives but defeat Harper, which was, of course, an impossibility. Desperate times call for ridiculous measures, apparently.

But, now, they say the Conservative platform, which they earlier called the most progressive one the party has put forward in decades, is, in fact, a sham, a smoke screen, well, a lie (my words, not theirs, but you can read it for yourself).

I wonder if that’s why the latest polls from Nanos and Mainstreet saw a 4-point shift in support for the leading parties. From Blue to Red. Might be a blip or it might be the turning point. We’ll know for sure in nine days.

Now, since I’ll be out of town on election day, I’m heading out to vote.

If you’re interested in more of my opinions and observations you can pick up my book, Let Me Gather My Thoughts, here or on Amazon. On the other hand, if you would like a break from current affairs why not try my mystery novel, In the Shadow of Versailles, set in 1919 Paris. Get it here.