The Rise and Slow Decline of Jason Kenney

In 2014, Jason Kenney was the heir apparent to Steven Harper. Though there were a few others vying for the crown, Kenney was the leader of the pack. Already the most powerful minister in the federal government, he had shown a particular gift for wooing minority groups to the Conservative cause (he was dubbed “Curry in a Hurry” by his colleagues for his frequent appearances at community banquets across the country).

Kenney’s road to the top was a somewhat winding one. After attending a Jesuit university in California (he didn’t finish his degree) where he became a noted anti-abortion and anti-gay campaigner, he returned to Canada and briefly served as executive assistant to Ralph Goodale, the Liberal premier of Saskatchewan. Very shortly thereafter, he was hired to run the Alberta, then Canadian, Taxpayers’ Federation, a small but influential conservative lobby group. He entered federal politics, winning as a Reform MP in the 1997 election at the age of 29.

Eight years later, the path to the Prime Minister’s office seemed clear. They would easily win the 2015 election against the solid but uninspiring Tom Mulcair. The Liberal party was dead and the insult machine was already taking aim at new untried leader, Justin Trudeau, expecting to destroy his chances the way they had the previous two party chiefs. A few years later, Harper would retire and Kenney would be king.

 By 2015, things were not so clear. The NDP was climbing in the polls and it became clear the Conservatives were in for a fight. They responded by rolling out massive advertising buys in advance of the longest Canadian election campaign since 1872. The party’s coffers were full and they were sure they could easily outspend and outlast the opposition. It was the first of several key strategic errors, Harper and his crew would make.

The second was to underestimate Justin Trudeau. It was if they had come to believe their own propaganda. Trudeau had already won a seat (when Liberals all around were losing theirs) in Papineau, which had long been a stronghold of the separatist Bloc Quebecois. He then united a party that had been split into two factions for nearly twenty years. Yet, the Conservatives largely ignored him to take on Mulcair. Then came the first leaders’ debate, where Trudeau didn’t merely survive but was the consensus winner.

By the end of the campaign, the Conservatives were growing a little desperate. After taking a hardline against Muslim women wearing head scarfs when swearing their oath to Canada, a small bounce in the polls lead them to go all-in with the announcement of a “barbaric practices hotline,” to encourage Canadians to snitch on fellow citizens. Instead of wide popular approval, the proposal was widely condemned and ensured both the defeat of the Harper government and the entrenchment of a solid group of very conservative MPs and activists in the federal party. Kenney, always a loyal solder, had come out swinging in defense of the idea, saw much of his work with minorities washed away.

In the aftermath of the defeat, Harper resigned as leader and most leading Conservatives, convinced Trudeau would be invincible for at least 8 years, found something else to do, mostly in the cozy confines of corporate boardrooms. The federal party was left in the hands of a dozen lightweights who vied for the leadership. The final winner was Andrew Scheer, a pale version of Harper with a thin resume and few ideas. Maxime Bernier, who finished a close second, left in a snit to form the far right Peoples’ Party of Canada.

Jason Kenney had other ideas. The NDP shocked Canada by winning the 2015 provincial election in Alberta, leaving the right fragmented and fighting among themselves. Rather than pursue the federal party head in 2017, he chose to run for the Progressive Conservative leadership and, having won that, launched a campaign to “unite the right.” By 2019, he was solidly entrenched as the leader of the United Conservative Party, despite allegations of questionable (and perhaps illegal) tactics in the leadership campaign. In the subsequent election, he won a landslide victory.

It is difficult to know what Kenney had in mind at that moment. Was he satisfied to be premier of the 4^th largest province when the Prime Minister’s job had seemed so close? Did he see the premiership as a step back to Ottawa (despite the fact that no Canadian premier has ever become Prime Minister)? He had defied conventional wisdom before, why not again?

It hardly matters now. Oil prices that had peaked at over $100 a barrel in 2014 had fallen below $60 and remained stubbornly low, falling to just over $50 weeks after Kenney, a strong defender of oil and gas, was sworn in as Premier. Although Kenney had no control over the world price of oil, he claimed credit for its rise toward the end of 2019. Then COVID-19 struck and the price of oil collapsed, falling as low as $12 in April, 2020. Although the price has risen again as the world economy re-opens, the damage to the government’s finances, which had frequently relied on oil to keep provincial taxes the lowest in the country, was already done. Crippling budget cuts in the midst of the pandemic—while federal coffers were wide open—started the party’s slide.

The subsequent inconsistent and often dangerous handling of the pandemic infuriated both left and right in Alberta (though for very different reasons) and soon Kenney saw his personal popularity collapse (he is now the most unpopular elected leader in the country) and his party fall behind the NDP in the polls, as new extreme parties began to nip at his right flank. Having no room to maneuver on the left, he is now fighting a read guard action to preserve his leadership of the United Conservative Party. It is rumoured (though he denies it) that he even allowed some backbench MLAs negotiate with recent blockaders of the US border, a move that backfired when a cadre of well-armed extremists bent on murder was discovered in their midst.

Like most provincial premiers whose polls are sagging, Kenney is now trying to point the finger of blame at the federal government in Ottawa, with growing levels of cynicism and unreality. First came the absurd and pointless referendum on the equalization program, which Kenney (who had a major hand in designing the latest version) knows full-well is fully in the power of the federal government. Now, he is proposing to sue over the invocation of the Emergencies Act (which was passed by the government of Conservative PM, Brian Mulroney), although the basis for such a suit is utterly unclear.

Will it be enough to keep Mr. Kenney his job? He might well stave off a challenge by the right to remove him, though only by moving farther to the right himself. I know some of my progressive friends in Alberta are wondering how he possibly could go farther right. Just watch him.

He might decide that it is now or never and re-enter federal politics, but I think the well has been poisoned for him in the federal party. A failed provincial premier is unlikely to be a palatable option for the increasingly divided federal party. Ironically, Trudeau was not as invincible as they all thought and Kenney may now rue avoiding the federal leadership race in 2017, when the mantle might well have been his for the asking.

A year is an eternity in politics. Kenney may retain his leadership though winning a subsequent election when most urban areas in the province now solidly reject the far-right blandishments of their rural cousins, seems unlikely.

The political road may be ending for Jason Kenney but don’t shed too many tears for him. He has a career with his corporate friends to look forward to and, at the end of the day, a fat federal pension to retire on.

Photo by Jason Blackeye on Unsplash

A Tea Party Moment

Our medieval scholar has taken a day to contemplate the state of the city and has asked me to fill in. I’ll do my best to enlighten if not entertain you.

Some pundits, and I’m sure some within the crowd now occupying downtown Ottawa, think that this could be the beginning of the Canadian equivalent of the Tea Party, a radical right-wing movement from the 1990s that eventually took over the American Republican party. The support for the convoy expressed by a significant portion of the Conservative parliamentary caucus certainly gives one pause.

However, even if a radical movement were to arise from the current protests—highly unlikely given the lack of a cohesive message or agenda—it would find itself stymied by our parliamentary system. Currently, there are five political parties with seats in the House of Commons with a sixth knocking at the door. Others may arise over time but few will disappear. This diversity of voices almost certainly contributes to the generally centrist politics of Canadian federal governments.

The Tea Party could take over the Republican Party precisely because the presidential system of election constantly re-enforces a two-party system. While significant third-party candidates have on occasion made the ballot, they have never won. In fact, the last one to come second was Teddy Roosevelt in 1912 and he had the advantage of being a former president. Because, frequently, voters only had two realistic choices, the tea party could use the primary system to take command of the Republican party without having to first convince the majority of Republicans of their views. Once ensconced, they drove out more moderate voices and relied on voter loyalty to the brand to make their policies the central polices of the GOP. Now, as demography turns against them, they are fighting a read-guard action of voter suppression to maintain power, aided of course by the ridiculously undemocratic allocation of Senate seats where every state gets two Senators.

Other countries with presidential systems avoid the two-party trap by having run-off elections where multiple candidates run for the office and the two with the most votes then run against each other a week or two later. Because most of these countries also have a form of proportional representation, whoever wins the presidency will not have a majority in the legislature and must form broad alliances to advance their agenda. Run-offs have their own issues. In France where an ultra-right movement became strong enough to come second in the last few elections, their success forced voters to vote for the alternative, assuring a centrist or centre-left president. This will likely result in the re-election of Macron, a not particularly popular president, in this year’s vote.

Canada’s protection comes precisely from an element of our political landscape that many people decry – the fragmentation along regional lines (such as the Bloc Quebecois or even the Green Party with its BC base) or between urban and rural voters even within the same region or province; urban areas tilt left, rural ones, right. Radical parties, on the federal level, seldom succeed in getting elected in significant numbers and, if they do, have very limited power or even influence. It should be noted the last Conservative PM succeeded in winning 3 elections (with only one majority) by largely suppressing or silencing the far right in his party. The last two leaders of that party largely failed because they lacked the authority to do the same.

If the leaders of the Conservative party now embrace the radical right, they may find that they not only diminish their chances of forming government but may also see their ability to influence either governments or the general population. That has generally been the fate of ultra-right parties in Europe, elected to legislatures only to be ostracized and ignored. Strange coalitions of traditional opponents have sometimes resulted from determined efforts to keep the fringe on the fringe.

Of course, one sure way to keep them under control is proportional representation, wherein the far right (and left) has a voice without any real access to power. But that’s another story.

Pandemic Politics (Canadian Edition)

The COVID-19 pandemic, now about to enter its third year has upended Canadian politics. Or has it?

Four provincial elections and one federal one has been held during the pandemic and two provincial elections will occur later this year. Since hindsight is always twenty-twenty, let’s start by looking back.

During the early stages of the pandemic, most Canadians trusted their governments and felt they were doing a good job. In most provinces and federally, approval ratings for premiers and the prime minister rose, sometimes dramatically (although not so much in Alberta). John Horgan of BC called an early election partly because cracks had started to appear in his agreement with the Greens but mostly because he thought he could win. And he did, propelling the NDP from minority to majority.

Before anyone gets too outraged, the goal of all political parties is to win government. Any leader in a minority will call an election if he or she thinks it will result in a majority. It doesn’t always work as we’ll see shortly. However, it worked for Horgan, who remains relatively popular, and it worked for Blaine Hicks in New Brunswick, who called an early election and turned a Progressive Conservative minority into a majority. Since then, the Hicks government had had difficulty being consistent in their approach to COVID and have struggled with both communications and delivery. The Premier’s popularity has dropped considerably in recent months.

The third of the class of 2020 was Scott Moe in Saskatchewan who won his fourth consecutive majority government. Though he lost 3 seats and a few percentage points of popular vote, the final results weren’t remotely close. Since then, Moe’s popularity has dropped significantly as both those who think he has done too little to contain COVID join those who think he has done too much in turning against him.

Regardless of current concerns, all three of the 2020 alumni can rest easy knowing they won’t face the electorate again until 2024.

Jump ahead to 2021. In March, new Liberal leader and Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, Andrew Furey, riding high in the polls called an early election hoping to follow the lead of BC and NB to move from a minority to a majority. It worked but barely. In the middle of the campaign, a surge in COVID forced the cancellation of in-person voting and sent Liberal poll numbers in a nose dive. In the end, Furey captured 22 of 40 seats, a working majority but not the comfortable result he had hoped for. Lesson learned, Furey has been forceful in his pandemic response and his approval rating is among the highest in the country and should safely govern into 2025.

Then some months later, in Nova Scotia, new Liberal leader and premier, Iain Rankin, with a healthy lead in the polls, called an election hoping to extend his party’s majority rule. Though COVID didn’t intervene directly in the election as it had in Newfoundland and Labrador, it did uncover significant weaknesses in the province’s health care system which became the preeminent election issue. The Progressive Conservatives won a surprise victory and a majority government.

Those results must have put a shiver up the spines of both Justin Trudeau and Erin O’Toole, the former of fear; the latter of excitement. Trudeau, perceiving a path to a majority, had called an election just two days before the Nova Scotia result, while O’Toole, who clearly had been preparing for an election even while declaring he didn’t want one, came out of the gate fast. In the end, the Conservative campaign faltered, in part at least by O’Toole’s equivocal stance on vaccine mandates (among other things) and Trudeau was returned to government with a few more seats but still well short of a majority. However, COVID may make this minority much more stable and long lasting. Recent polls show no particular rise or fall for either the Liberals or NDP but conservative fortunes have fallen dramatically even as support for the far-right Peoples Party of Canada led by (Mad) Max Bernier has risen by an equivalent amount. My own prediction is that the current Federal government will be in power until late 2024 or even into 2025.

Which brings us to 2022 and upcoming votes in Canada’s two biggest provinces. Ontario will go to the polls no later than June and Quebec must have an election no later than October. How will COVID impact the political fortunes of Ford and Legault? Foresight, unlike hindsight, is never precise but it would be foolish to think the pandemic will have no impact.

In Ontario, Ford’s popularity seems to have bottomed out which is good news of a sort, though an approval rating in the high 30s is nothing to crow about, with only Jason Kenney of Alberta scoring lower. Still, a month ago Ford, thanks to an even split in opposition support could dream of another majority or at least a strong minority. Although he has been widely criticized either for not doing enough or doing too much, the general discontent is with the constant whipsawing from one extreme to the other in the provincial response to the pandemic.

Then Omicron hit and Ford, reluctantly, hesitatingly and confusedly, tightened restrictions. It’s a pattern most people in Ontario have seen before and, frankly, it may sound a death knell for the Conservative hopes, especially if, as it appears to be happening, there is a consolidation of opposition support around one party. Right now, the NDP seem to be that party but six months is an eternity in politics and much could change. Still, I’ll go out on a limb and call an NDP minority.

In Quebec, Francois Legault has been consistent and consistently tough in his pandemic response, allowing some loosening of restrictions but slamming the door shut at the first hint of an outbreak. His popularity began to waver (from astronomical to merely very good) when it appeared he was getting soft on the virus so today he doubled down, requiring vaccine passports to buy booze and cannabis (good god!) and promising to change the definition of fully vaccinated to include the booster. Legault may not have publicly said he wants to “piss off” the unvaccinated but he must surely have thought it. Despite other looming difficulties for the right-wing CAQ, they continue to hold leads of 15-25% in the polls of a scattered and shattered opposition. I predict a new and maybe larger majority in his future.

I wonder if Trudeau’s recent toughening stance against those who refuse to get the jab (while O’Toole continues to vacillate) have anything to do with the numbers in Quebec. I’ll guess we’ll eventually find out because I suspect, even if the pandemic wanes, its impact will continue to be felt in politics for years to come.

Well, that was a long slog. If you got this far, you should reward yourself by buying one of my books. There are lots to chose from—just ask Google.

Expand the Franchise

I’ll admit my biases right up front. I served on my first constituency executive (the NDP in Cumberland North, Nova Scotia) when I was 14. I was labelled as the youth representative but debated and had a full vote on matters that came before the executive. I think some of the other members were perplexed but they were also respectful and listened to my suggestions.

I attended my first political convention at the age of 17 and as soon as I was legally allowed to vote (when I turned 18) I did so in every election where I was eligible and maybe in one when I wasn’t. The voting age had dropped from 21 in 1970 – otherwise I wouldn’t have had the vote until I completed my first university degree.

So, I am very much of the school of vote early and vote often.

The history of democracy is a history of expanding the franchise – increasing the categories of people who are allowed to vote. At the time of confederation only white and black men over the age of 21 who owned property had the vote, which excluded the vast majority of Canadians from participating in democracy.

Over tine, the property right qualification was dropped and in 1907, Chinese Canadians were given the right to vote in federal elections but didn’t gain it in BC until 1920. Women who had limited voting rights in Ontario municipal elections as early as 1884 gained the federal franchise in on a limited basis in 1917 but had full voting rights the following year. Most other provinces followed suit within four years but Quebec women had no vote until 1940.

Inuit were first explicitly excluded from voting in 1934 and then granted the vote in 1950; other indigenous people—those who preferred to retain their “Status”—were denied the franchise until 1960.

Expanding the franchise is the very essence of democracy but at every step along the way there were those who argued vociferously against it. The reasons were many—not smart enough, not experienced enough, not Canadian enough—but the core argument was the same. Those with power didn’t want to give it up. They were afraid that somehow their comfortable assurances would be disrupted.

Extending the franchise did not immediately lead to a freer and more just society. Political institutions and culture are far more resilient than that. Indeed, some early suffragettes argued that votes for women—white women—were needed to offset the influences of immigrant men. But over time, the extension of the franchise has changed society for the better.

Now a group of teenagers is suing the federal government to lower the voting age, arguing that they have a vested interest in the future of the country and that they should have the right to influence that future through voting. While no specific age is mentioned, various politicians at the federal level – a Senator and a couple of MPs—have introduced private member’s bills to lower the age to 16. The Nova Scotia Liberal party has adopted a policy to do the same thing provincially. In the meantime, most federal parties across the entire spectrum from left to right, let 16-year-olds vote in leadership contests.

And why not? At 16, you can leave home and live on your own without parental consent, you can drive, join the army, you can certainly work and pay taxes (I paid my first income taxes when I was 16) and you can consent to sex, so why not vote?

Now drinking – that’s an entirely different matter!

But that’s all the time I have. See you tomorrow.

P.S. I have a few books you could read, google me to find out more.

Would You Like to Dance?

A new swear word has entered the Canadian political lexicon. At least Erin O’Toole was spouting it like a drunken sailor in a foul mood.

Coalition. Apparently, the worst thing since the almost-forgotten WE sort-of, kind-of, not-really scandal.

Those less generous than me have suggested it is a distraction from growing splits in his own party between anti-vaxxers and sensible people, between social conservatives and those conservatives who don’t want to tell you how to live.

I think he’s trying to capture the luster surrounding his once-removed predecessor, Stephen Harper (now those are two words, Harper’s luster, that I never thought I’d put together). You may recall how he used the threat of a minority coalition, supported (sort of) by the Bloc, to get a prorogation and eventually a majority government. Coalitions are bad, but ones supported by the Bloc are worse.

It is true, Canada does not have a long history of coalition governments at the Federal level. The last was in 1917 when Conservative PM, Robert Borden, forged one (called the Union government) in order to support conscription. Wow, a Conservative forming a not only a coalition but a Union as well. Dark days indeed. It barely survived the end of the war.

However, provincial coalitions have happened in Canada a few times, sometimes formally (with more than one party represented in Cabinet) or with written agreements to govern. The formal ones happened in the 1930s or 40s but less formal arrangements occurred in Ontario in 1985 and, most recently in BC in 2017. None of these, of course, involved Conservatives.

Not every conservative in the world has eschewed coalitions. The Conservative’s grandfather party in England governed as a coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats from 2010 to 2015. The Conservative party prospered under the arrangement; the Liberal-Democrats still haven’t recovered.

Of course, coalitions are common place in most other democracies. The USA may seem the exception but coalitions have existed in Congress and at the state level from time to time and many would argue that both the major parties are coalitions of groups that don’t like each other but hate the other side more.

Meanwhile, many countries operate just fine with coalitions, sometimes between parties that seem to be quite different. Of course, much of that is a rational accommodation to proportional representation, where the issue might well be not who is in the coalition but who is left out (fascists and Maoists seldom make comfortable parliamentary partners).

I’m sure that if coalition is a swear word, proportional representation is a phrase that would require O’Toole to wash out his own mouth with lye soap. Where would the conservatives find a dance partner then? The Bloc?

I don’t think we can expect a formal coalition between Liberals and New Democrats any time soon, or even, for that matter, a written agreement (though it is in the realm of possibility). Instead, we can expect an era of on-going minority governments as portions of the electorate turn away for consensus and begin voting for ever narrower local parties. But more on that some other day.

In the meantime, why not take a break with a good mystery, set in coalition-ridden France between the wars. Here are the links: Book 1 and Book 2

Strategic Voting

As election day approaches, some voters are considering the merits of strategic voting. Though largely a tactic adopted by progressive voters, keen to reduce the likelihood of a conservative being elected in their riding, it doesn’t have to be that way.

For example, one might vote strategically in Quebec in an effort to ensure a federalist candidate was elected in place of a BQ. If your main desire is to see the Liberal seat count reduced or even Trudeau replaced as PM, a Conservative, say in a Toronto riding, might choose to vote for the NDP if they thought they had a better chance of defeating a Liberal. Conversely, a Liberal in BC might not want the NDP to win their riding and could consider voting Conservative as an alternative.

For strategic voting to work, you would first have to have a pretty good idea of who is in first and second place in your particular constituency. Riding level polls typically have small sample sizes and, hence, a significant margin of error. Where there are only two parties in contention, the strategic choice is clear but in close three-way or, in a few cases, four-way races, it would be hard to know where to place your strategic vote. In those cases, it might be best to forget strategy and vote for the party that suits you best rather than one that is just “good enough.”

Of course, some people think you should always vote for the party that best reflects your own values and let the chips fall where they may. Some object to strategic voting because it is mostly a negative thing – you are voting against someone, rather than for someone. Other voters think it doesn’t matter who gets in; they will be good or bad in equal measures. And, to some extent, that is true. In Canada, those parties that have managed to form governments at either the federal or provincial level have, with a few notable exceptions, seldom drifted a long way from the centre (although if you are strongly progressive or conservative, it may not feel like that). Still, there is a difference between centre right and centre left and given my druthers, I’ll take centre left every day.

What if the parties in first and second place are the ones you would choose anyway? Does strategic voting have a role to play then? Although we only vote for the person in our riding, the ultimate winner does become part of a party caucus. The size of those caucuses will collectively determine who will form the government and even one member might make the different between a Liberal or Conservative government (the only real likelihood based on current polls). Then voting strategically gets even more mind-bendingly complicated.

In the end, the important thing to do is to vote. Whatever way you make the calculation to cast your ballot to do the most good (or least harm), the key thing is to get out there and do your civic duty. Without voters, there is no democracy.

Since I’ll largely be out of Internet contact until after election day (I voted in the advance poll), here is my personal prediction of the final outcome: another Liberal minority. Seats with changes from last election.

Liberals   152 (-5)

Conservatives 116 (-5)

NDP 36 (+12)

BQ 32 (0)

Green 2 (-1)

PPC   0 (0)

Others  0 (-1)

A lot of sound and fury for not much change. Look to return to the polls in 2023.

In the meantime, why not read a good book? In the Shadow of Versailles

WTF?

Apparently, people took my last blog about the weirdness of the current election campaign as a challenge.

Let’s start with this morning’s news about the NDP. Two candidates resigned from the campaign with mere days to go over anti-Semitic comments on Twitter. These were not ancient dusty tweets from years ago – both were in the last two years. To make matters worse (for me), one of them is running in the riding I ran in in the dim recesses of history. I’m glad they resigned (or were forced to do so) but it does succeed in making this election even weirder. For the first time in living memory, no political party has a full slate of candidates on election day.

Meanwhile, Liberal leader, Justin Trudeau has had to defend snapping back at a protester making vile comments about his wife. After having responded previously with a mixture of compassion and humour, this apparently was a line too far. I’d like to ask the people who are questioning the PM what their response would be if their family members were attacked. (Of course, I’ve always thought that if Ted Cruz had clocked The Donald when he made similar comments, we might never have had a Trump presidency.) Speaking of assaults, a Liberal candidate was attacked in his own campaign office by a 56-year-old woman angry about god only knows what. She was arrested.

In related news, Jean Chretien has hit the campaign trail to support the Liberal campaign. Quite possibly as a bodyguard.

Meanwhile, at the Globe and Mail, John Ibbitson acknowledges that the People’s Party of Canada is far out of the mainstream but they deserve representation, which they are only denied by the vagaries of First Past the Post voting. He doesn’t, for obvious reasons (i.e. no Conservative governments ever), call for proportional representation, just good luck (or is it bad) in individual ridings. Once again, G&M editorialists demonstrate that while they observe politics, they don’t really understand how it works. The fact that fringe parties can’t win seats is a feature not a flaw of FPTP. Comparing them to the BQ (some polls put the national PPC vote as higher than the quasi-separatist Quebec party) is at best, jejune, and at worst, deliberately misleading. The BQ will get 25-30% of the vote in Quebec, more than enough to win a fair share of seats there. Even the Greens only achieved representation by building up a regional stronghold on Vancouver Island. I wonder where John was in 2019 when the Greens got 6% of the vote but only won three seats (instead of the 20 or so he says the PPC deserve).

Speaking of the Greens, Leader Annamie Paul upped the stakes by revealing she considered resigning from the leadership several times before and, apparently, after the campaign began. I hope she hangs in for the sake of her party and herself (though an actual resignation would up the weirdness quotient).

Erin O’Toole is now relying on thoughts and prayers to win the election, if the odd photograph attached to a CBC story is any indication. In more earthly news, a Manitoba Conservative has had to apologize for spreading lies, I mean, disinformation, about vaccines and their effectiveness. No resignation required this time, probably because it is a seat his party can actually win. Meanwhile, in a surprise move, Canadian unions reject O’Toole’s valentine to Canadian workers.

I’m afraid to say it can’t get any weirder. The secret cabal of lizard people might make a public endorsement of one of the parties. Anyway, get out and vote on Monday, if you haven’t already done so.

In happier news, my novel, In the Shadow of Versailles is now available as a paperback.

The Turning Point

I’ve been watching elections – federal, provincial, municipal, other countries – since I was 14. This may be one of the oddest I’ve ever seen.

When we should be talking about pandemic recovery, indigenous reconciliation, and, more than anything, climate change, we wonder why we are having an election, worry about provincial legislation and policy (it’s a FEDERAL election, folks), and people throwing stones at politicians (turns out that was a Peoples Party of Canada riding association president – since removed).

Parties are falling all over themselves to disavow candidates and officials for misrepresenting themselves, or facing accusations of sexual harassment and racism. Let’s hope none of them get elected. And a politician who is not even running got mentioned five times in the last leaders’ debate.

Meanwhile the polls drift around, a five-point Liberal lead at the start of the campaign turned into a 5 point Conservative lead after two weeks and now both parties are essentially tied, with the Liberals holding a slight edge in the seat projections. The NDP are doing marginally better than the last two elections, but sadly, haven’t come close to Jack Layton’s result in 2011. The Greens are imploding due to party infighting and a lack of cash. Their leader now says she’s not helpful to some of their candidates. The BQ are floating below 2019 results but will still likely win 25 or so seats.

Then we have the PPC. They seem to be doing better than last time but how much better is anybody’s guess. Most pollsters have them at around 5%, probably enough to win one seat, but EKOS pegs them at 12% which is… weird, since they seem to be taking votes from everyone but the Conservatives. It seems unlikely but then this is the unlikeliest election of all.

In other words, we probably are going to wind up with a Parliament that doesn’t look a lot different than the one we had a month ago. Likely a Liberal minority or maybe a Conservative one, though O’Toole may find it difficult to find dance partners. While I’m not keen on a Conservative majority, my worst nightmare is a Conservative minority relying on the BQ to govern.

Well, that’s what we’ll get unless we’ve reached a turning point.

The oddest thing I’ve seen so far is the latest Globe and Mail editorial that, in the politest possible terms, calls Erin O’Toole a liar. The G&M is not the most progressive voice in Canadian journalism. Their actual reportage is fine but generally their opinion writers are all on the right side of center (and I don’t mean the correct side). In 2015, the editorial board called on Canadians to re-elect the Conservatives but defeat Harper, which was, of course, an impossibility. Desperate times call for ridiculous measures, apparently.

But, now, they say the Conservative platform, which they earlier called the most progressive one the party has put forward in decades, is, in fact, a sham, a smoke screen, well, a lie (my words, not theirs, but you can read it for yourself).

I wonder if that’s why the latest polls from Nanos and Mainstreet saw a 4-point shift in support for the leading parties. From Blue to Red. Might be a blip or it might be the turning point. We’ll know for sure in nine days.

Now, since I’ll be out of town on election day, I’m heading out to vote.

If you’re interested in more of my opinions and observations you can pick up my book, Let Me Gather My Thoughts, here or on Amazon. On the other hand, if you would like a break from current affairs why not try my mystery novel, In the Shadow of Versailles, set in 1919 Paris. Get it here.

From a Simmer to a Boil

Two weeks until election day, and the campaign is starting to warm up even as summer wanes. Though the media would have us believe we have all formed overheated opinions about the platforms and leaders, I suspect most Canadians have only now begun to tune in.

Erin O’Toole came out of the gate, surprisingly cool and collected. We were treated to a nice beefcake shot on the cover of MacLean’s, reminiscent of the tough guy poses of Ronnie Raygun and Vlad Poutine, a clear message to the base that he is a man’s man: a real honest-to-gun leader. He showed a softer side, too, by dumping a candidate accused of sexual harassment in a riding the Tories haven’t won in twenty years. Still, he managed to bob and weave his way through the first few weeks and saw his party’s fortunes rise even as the Liberals fell.

Justin Trudeau did as Trudeau does, a little bit hesitant and halting but earnest and sufficiently morally outraged over Conservative slips on health care and climate change. Similar to his long campaign for Liberal leadership and his 2015 winning strategy over Harper, Trudeau used a rope-a-dope style to weather early setbacks and hang in the race. The statesman’s beard is gone, replaced by handsome, if maturing, good looks. If O’Toole looks tough, Trudeau looks graceful, more lifeguard than weightlifter. [Don’t you love all these sports metaphors – just like a real pundit.] He had his troubles with harassing candidates, too, eventually forcing one out when he had too many strikes against him, tough as it was a seat the Liberals expected to win.

Jagmeet Singh has had a good campaign, even if the wheels did fall off his poutine truck, though the NDP still struggles to rise above their historic ceiling of 21%. As election day looms, he will have to use all his persuasive powers (and maybe a few martial art’s moves) to keep his supporters from making a last minute defection to the Liberals in a desperate move to prevent a Conservative plurality (majority seems out of reach for everybody at the moment) and return us to the 2019 status quo.

Blanchet is–oh, who cares? The BQ is a 90s throwback and, in the last 2 years, have talked a good fight but won few battles. The Quebec Premier on the other hand… but that’s a different story. As for the Greens and the PPC, they’ll be lucky to have seats in Parliament at all.

I can’t close without mentioning the entourage of anti-vaxxers, flat earthers, white supremacists and associated riff-raff who have been dogging the PM’s campaign. Trudeau has handled them with his usual gentility, deploring their tactics but hardly ever calling them the names they deserve to be called. The Conservative leader quickly and wisely disavowed his party’s campaign volunteers who took part, but they may have already done the damage to the right-wing cause. Still, the protestors are lucky it wasn’t the elder Trudeau or, better yet, Chretien, they were yelling at. Shawinigan handshake anyone?

We are now into the hard grind of the campaign. The conservative lead in the polls of 5-6 points has shrunk to 2-3 in the wake of the first leaders’ debate (for those who think the French debate doesn’t matter). With two more debates this week and the blitz of ads to come, it’s still anyone’s guess who will be PM after September 20^th.

As usual, I’m full of opinions and observations. If they entertain you, you can read a lot more in my book, Let Me Gather My Thoughts, which you can get here or on Amazon.

Calling All Voters

It’s summer! It’s hot! It must be time for an election!

Why are we having an election in August? Who would want that?

You may have forgotten that the election of 2015 (the longest campaign in recent history) also started in August. Why? Because the Conservatives had more money than the other parties and thought they could buy their way back into power. The timing was a deliberate play for power. It didn’t work.

But wait, don’t forget John Horgan, the NDP premier of BC. He called an early election (in the midst of COVID) even though his coalition with the Greens hadn’t run its course. Why? He could read the polls and wanted a majority. It was a deliberate play for power. Horgan got 4 more years.

Flash forward to 2021. Justin Trudeau was ahead in the polls. He wanted to leap on that lead to return to power—hoping for a majority. The timing was a deliberate play for power. The outcome is uncertain.

There is no ruling politician in the history of Canada that hasn’t tried to manipulate the calendar to their own advantage. Well, not entirely true. Mulroney/Campbell PCs delayed the election until the last possible minute hoping things would turn around. Not exactly a power play since they wound up scoring on their own net.

But…but…but we have a fixed date election law! Yes, a completely unconstitutional one which is why no one has ever bothered to take the matter to court.

Politicians want power. I know that sounds evil but the reality is that without power, they can’t implement their ideas and plans, plans people actually vote for (or against). Perhaps, it would be better if we had a different system—say proportional representation. We would have permanent coalitions (like Germany, if we’re lucky, like Israel if we’re not) and shifting alliances. More people would have power but some people still would have none. Bargains would be made, which no-one had voted for.

Don’t get me wrong, I do think PR is better than what we currently have. But it is not paradise. And, by the way, it’s not entirely Trudeau’s fault we don’t have it; the other 4 parties made a bargain which almost ensured the proposal would fail. Not being able to get exactly what they each wanted, they made sure nobody would get any change at all and Trudeau could take the blame. But that’s another story.

We have an election. Voting day is still 25 days away, though with mail-in ballots, advance polls and other forms of early voting, some people may cast their ballots in a little more than two weeks, the day after the English language leaders’ debate. You’ll need your thinking caps on full to figure out what’s what, who’s who and which is best for you and your country.

Good luck!

Don’t worry, I’ll be dropping in on a regular basis with thoughts, opinions and observations on the current campaign. Because I love politics so much, I even included them in my mystery novel, In the Shadow of Versailles, which you can buy here.