Fifteen years ago, everyone was battening down the hatches in nervous anticipation of the New Year. While some people were partying like it was 1999 (cause, well, it was), others were frantically working to ensure the world as we know it didn’t come to an end. Although, when I look around, it seems that the world as I know it pretty much comes to an end every other week — this time we all thought it was the real thing. Or we thought it was a massive hype designed to steal our money.
Something like that anyway. The crisis du jour, if you haven’t figured it out already, was Y2K — the supposed bug that would cause all the clocks in all the computers in the world to reset to zero, thus upsetting commerce, security, even weapons systems. Planes, we were told, would fall from the sky.
None of that happened, of course, and the world sighed and went on with its business. Some in the media went a step further and hounded the primary proponents of the Y2K problem, accusing them of making the whole thing up for unknown reasons but ‘nothing good’ they were sure.
It turns out that Y2K was a legitimate and serious problem and it was only the work of an army of old COBOL programmers (mostly retired by then) tthat fixed the bug in the vast majority of important computer systems around the world. Y2K didn’t happen — not because it was never a threat but because these men and women worked long hours to make sure it didn’t happen.
This phenomenon is nothing new and nothing special. The news — merely a proxy for human endeavours of all kinds — has a hard time dealing with the hypothetical. Once they had latched onto the idea of a major disaster that would have ruined their lives they were frankly disappointed when only a few systems crashed and no planes fell from the air. They couldn’t wrap their head around the idea that people could actually prevent a bad thing from happening. It was easier to create a ludicrous conspiracy theory to explain it all away.
I’ve often found that this impediment to future thinking is what lays at the heart of most public (and private) policy failures. Once someone is seized with an idea it is hard to get them to think of its negative.
A classic in Canada is the much hated (in the west) National Energy Program (NEP) which was imposed by Canada after negotiations with oil producing provinces on oil pricing broke down (and yes, Alberta did participate in those early negotiations — indeed, embraced them, as did the oil industry) to create a two price system for oil that was meant to shelter consumers from world prices while enriching both federal and provincial provinces. It was predicated on the idea that oil prices would continue to rise indefinitely. A few people asked: ‘but what if they don’t?’, but they were shouted down. Of course, oil prices not only stopped rising; they actually fell. The fall-out has impacted intergovernmental relations for decades.
Now, what do you suppose the inability to see the future has done to ability of some to recognize climate change?
But that’s ten minutes.
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