Let’s see now, the Premiers with the lowest approval ratings in Canada just happen to be the next three to face an election. Ford (at 36% approval) goes first in 2022, followed by Kenny (22%) and Goertzen (35%) in 2023. That’s assuming Kenny survives a leadership review scheduled for next Spring.
All three are Conservatives and each must be heaving a sigh of relief at Trudeau’s recent minority election win. After all, it would be awkward picking a fight with a newly elected Conservative PM.
Fighting the federal government, especially when it is led by a different party than your own, is a tried-and-true method of waging provincial election campaigns in Canada, especially in the west. Especially when you are behind in the polls.
Though Ford is the first to face the polls, he has been a bit slow off the mark in attacking the feds. Kenny, on the other hand, is in full snark mode, attacking Trudeau on the equalization program, appointments to the Senate, and the elevation of Steven Guilbeault to Minister of Environment. I’m sure there is more to come; Kenny is a desperate man, behind in the polls to the NDP and bleeding support on the right to the Wildrose Independence Party (whose initials WIP also stand for Work in Progress).
Let’s start with equalization. The UCP government inserted a referendum question on the matter into the recent municipal election. They claimed a resounding victory when more than 60% voted for the removal of the clause from the constitution. Of course, given the predictable low turnout in municipal elections, that amounts to about 25% of eligible voters. Subsequently Elections Alberta has had to apologize for describing the intent of the referendum in an erroneous fashion. No court in the land would view this as a clear majority on a clear question.
Besides, the matter is a non-starter. To change the constitution requires 7 provinces with 50% of the population (plus both Chambers of the federal Parliament). Currently five provinces receive equalization payments (which are not transfers from one province to another but come entirely from federal revenues. FEDERAL. FED-ER-AL!!!) You do the math, since apparently Kenny can’t.
Just as a side note, every province has received equalization payments since the program was begun in 1957 – though to be fair Alberta’s last payment was in 1964. And to see the secret history (well, not secret but largely ignored) of Kenny’s involvement in equalization and other federal transfers, you might want to read this.
Then there is the Senate. Three people were elected as Senators in waiting. It is doubtful any will ever be appointed to the Senate. But hey, if a Conservative can’t make a stink about senate appointments, then what purpose do they have in life? For the answer to that question, ask Mike Duffy.
As for the new Minister, Kenny apparently has never spoken to him and never wants to. The guy cares about the environment – obviously he’s the enemy of Alberta. Which will be the party line, although it may not be enough to save his skin. Apparently, a lot of Albertan’s care about the environment, too.
I’d hate for my friends in Ontario to think I’m neglecting Doug Ford. Mr. Ford is in a bit of a pickle when it comes to Fed bashing. Having spent the last year more or less praising federal efforts on the pandemic, he now must shift gears to accuse the new government of something—right now it seems to be that $10 billion was not enough to sign on to the new $10/day childcare plan. And I always thought Tories could squeeze a nickel until it screamed. I’m sure he’ll do better in the coming months. Of course, his political problems are a little different than those faced by the Alberta premier. His political opponents are all on the left. If he bashes the federal Liberals too hard, he might move voters from the Ontario party to the NDP. Without a split vote, he has no real chance at a second term. I can hardly wait to see what they come up with.
As for Goertzen in Manitoba, we’re still at the Goertzen Who stage of his tenure (though he’s well enough known at home that 65% of voters don’t seem to like him).
Looking for more political wit and wisdom? Try “Let Me Gather My Thoughts” here or on Amazon.
Alternatively, entertain yourself with the first or second of my Max Anderson mysteries.
10 Minutes of Words 