Prognostications

Standard

The best things about predicting what will happen in the coming year are, one, by this time next year no one will remember that you did it and, two, if they do, all you need to do is to get a couple right and you look brilliant. Statistically you need to get more than 50% right for your predictions to be more than random chance, but most people aren’t really that good at math. So here goes. I’ll start with a couple that I’m pretty confident about.

Despite the continued outrage of Conservatives from coast to coast, both Kathleen Wynne and Rachel Notley will still be the Premiers of their respective provinces. And Justin Trudeau will still be Prime Minister. There is nothing anyone can legally do about that.

The federal conservatives will still be led on an interim basis by Rona Ambrose but here’s the important part: people will realize that she is just Stephen Harper with better hair. Her shrill single note attacks on the government will wear thin everywhere but in the Globe and Mail and various Postmedia publications – all of which will see their readership continue to decline. See, three predictions all in one.

Now for the tough stuff. Senator Mike Duffy will be acquitted on most of the 31 charges laid against him. And he will serve no jail time for any of the ones they do make stick. He will return to the Senate and serve out his term – health willing. Charges against Patrick Brazeau will be stayed by a humbled prosecution and Pamela Wallin and Mac Harb will never see a day in court.

Donald Trump will not be the GOP nominee despite his continued lead in the polls. An alternative, either Ted Cruz or Mark Rubio, will be chosen at a brokered convention. The nominee will subsequently lose to Hilary Clinton who will easily secure her own party’s nomination despite Bernie’s loyal cadre of fans.

The economy will continue to be shaky but will not be as bad as the Bears suggest. Moderate growth in the USA and a mild recovery in China will raise most boats.  In Canada, Ontario will become the major driver of a weak economic recovery.

The war in Syria will be resolved – probably with some sort of coalition between Assad and the moderate opposition. ISIS/Daesh will be in retreat and its reclusive leader will be killed. Another leader will spring up but the movement itself will decline. This will not reduce the fear of terrorism, just the threat.

People will still be talking about climate change – mostly without effect. However, progress will be made by the major emitters and technological solutions that separate economic growth from energy consumption will begin to emerge. The price of oil will not significantly recover but, for many economies, this will not be a bad thing.

A new movie will break all box office records. Writers will still fight over self-publishing vs traditional publishing while their incomes – on average – continue to fall.

Some people close to you will die; other people will bring great joy to your life. In a few unfortunate cases, these will be the same people.

I will try to quite writing 10 minutes of words but will fail utterly.

And that’s ten minutes.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s